The Peoples Pledge are crowing about a 'historic' result in Thurrock.
In a 'referendum about a referendum' the voters were asked if they agreed or disagreed to the question:
Voters should be given a national referendum on whether the UK remains a member of the European Union.
The results are in:
Numbers voting AGREE 13,111 (89.9%)
Numbers voting DISAGREE 1,479 (10.1%)
That looks like a clear result. Thurrock must want an EU referendum. Right?
Well, lets look a little closer. First lets look at the 2010 general election result:
For this ballot:
Ballot size: 47,995
Turnout: 14,590 (30.3%)
Lets adjust the results:
Numbers voting AGREE 13,111 (27.3%)
Numbers voting DISAGREE 1,479 (3.1%)
Numbers who don't care 33,405 (69.9%)
So, only 30% of the people of Thurrock care enough about the EU to express an opinion either way and only 27% want an EU referendum.
But wait a minute. The Thurrock constituency is ~77500 voters.
The ballot was only sent to ~48000 voters. Presumably they were the people most likely to have voted in the May 2010 election.
Lets adjust the results again:
Numbers voting AGREE 13,111 (16.9%)
Numbers voting DISAGREE 1,479 (1.9%)
Numbers who don't care 33,405 (43.1%)
Numbers who were not asked 29505 (38%)
This is one of UKIPs top constituencies (even if they only came 5th) with over double their national average vote share. Presumably it would have been even higher without BNP.
There was nobody campaigning against a referendum. The poll was run by people who want a YES result.
The poll was a postal ballot. People could answer online or via the post, so voters didn't even need to leave their homes.
Even with all that, only 17% of the voters of Thurrock actually said they want an EU referendum.
The people's pledge say:
The result will cause consternation among all the main parties at Westminster who have all tried to ignore the issue.
In Thurrock itself, both the Conservative MP, Jackie Doyle-Price, and her Labour challenger, Polly Billington, have refused to engage with the People’s Pledge.
Actually, it shows that the main parties are closer to the views of the voters of Thurrock than UKIP and the Euro-obsessives at Peoples Pledge.
The main parties got 82% of the votes between them in 2010 without engaging with the Euro-obsessives. By Peoples Pledge's own standard, a result of over 80% is a 'historic result', so in May 2010 the historic result was "We don't care about the EU enough to vote for UKIP".
Today, I think the people of Thurrock have spoken. Their view on an EU referendum is not "yes please" as claimed by the Peoples Pledge, but a resounding "meh".